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Non-cooperative and cooperative policy reforms under uncertainty and spillovers

Hefeker, Carsten; Neugart, Michael - 2017

When countries need to implement costly economic policy reforms, these often imply uncertainties about their effectiveness for the home country and their spillovers to other countries. We develop a model to show that under these circumstances countries implement too few or too many policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602603

Forecasting tail risks : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money and International Finance, February 2015

De Nicolò, Gianni; Lucchetta, Marcella - 2015

the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498601

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Closed-form integrated assessment and uncertainty

Traeger, Christian - 2015

-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305430

Should we give up after Solyndra? : optimal technology R&D portfolios under uncertainty

Webster, Mort; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Popp, David; … - 2015

Global climate change and other environmental challenges require the development of new energy technologies with lower emissions. In the near-term, R&D investments, either by government or the private sector, can bring down the costs of these lower emission technologies. However, the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298511

Measuring the economic risk of epidemics

Noy, Ilan; Nguyen Doan; Ferrarini, Benno; Park, Donghyun - 2019

We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the …’s resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156716

Compensation for loss of work income in personal injury cases

Danziger, Leif; Katz, Eliakim - 2017

economic theory to address this issue. We find that the relation between the appropriate compensation and the mean and median …, as well as the degree of risk aversion. Since the consumption uncertainty associated with compensation generally exceeds …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688166

Offshoring under uncertainty

Kohler, Wilhelm; Kukharskyy, Bohdan - 2018

We develop a theoretical framework to explain firms' offshoring decisions in the presence of uncertainty. This model highlights the role of labor market institutions in shaping a firm's ability to effectively react upon future shocks, yielding a sharp prediction of the prevalence of offshoring...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882486

Risk management-driven policy rate gap

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Nodari, Gabriela - 2018

-Bernanke period only. Focusing on this period, the "risk-management" approach is found to be responsible for monetary policy easings …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011884396

Guaranteed renewable life insurance under demand uncertainty

Hoy, Michael; Mirza, Afrasiab; Sadanand, Asha B. - 2018

literature that, when there is (only) risk type uncertainty, the optimal GR contract with renewal price set at the actuarially … fair price for low risk types provides full insurance against reclassification risk. We develop a model that includes … unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864322