quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …

The paper analyses the reasons for Japan's persistently low inflation since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy … (low inflation conundrum). It is shown that Japan experienced a structural break from a high-growth period with relatively … high inflation to a low-growth period with exceptionally low inflation since the early 1990s. We show based on a stylized …

find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not limited to periods of high inflation. -- quantity theory of money …

with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the …

This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

We investigate regime-dependent Granger causality between real output, inflation and monetary indicators and map with U … variables to explain variations in real output and inflation. We provide a comprehensive account of evolution of causal …