Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,235
Cover Image
Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks
Van Robays, Ine - 2012
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. -- oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702
Cover Image
Explosive oil prices
Gronwald, Marc - 2013
This paper deals with three aspects of spectacular oil price episodes such as the one witnessed in 2008. First, the concept of temporary explosiveness is proposed as an empirical method for capturing this type of behavior. The application of a recently proposed recursive unit root test shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786017
Cover Image
Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
Cover Image
The interplay between oil and food commodity prices : has it changed over time?
Peersman, Gert; Rüth, Sebastian; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2019
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
Cover Image
Energy markets and global economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas - 2020
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172
Cover Image
Oil market efficiency, quantity of information, and oil market turbulence
Gronwald, Marc; Wadud, Sania; Dogah, Kingsley - 2024
This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490913
Cover Image
Forty years of oil price fluctuations : why the price of oil may still surprise us
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431626
Cover Image
Fuel efficiency improvements : feedback mechanisms and distributional effects in the oil market
Aune, Finn Roar; Bøeng, Ann Christin; Kverndokk, Snorre; … - 2015
efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309227
Cover Image
Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ciferri, Davide; Girardi, … - 2010
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965099
Cover Image
Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016 - First version: January 21, 2015. This version: September 13, 2015
Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428356