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Forecasting Euro area real GDP : optimal pooling of information

Hülsewig, Oliver (contributor); Mayr, Johannes (contributor) - 2008

modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast … errors of the area-wide target variable. In an out-of-sample forecast experiment we find that our optimal pooling of … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749431

On the use of current or forward-looking data in monetary policy : a behavioural macroeconomic approach

De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei - 2021

We analyse the use of current and forward-looking data in the setting of monetary policy (Taylor rule). We answer the question of whether the use of forward-looking data is to be preferred over the use of current data. We use a behavioural macroeconomic model that generates periods of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420886

Unconventional monetary policy in the euro area : impacts on loans, employment, and investment

Afonso, António; Pereira, Francisco Gomes - 2022

Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy on a micro panel at the bank and firm level, we study the transmission effectiveness of ECB’s large-scale asset purchasing programs programs (i.e. APP and PEPP) in the Euro area. Our findings show: first, balance sheet composition of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012888479

Macroprudential policy and the sovereign-bank nexus in the euro area

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Kolb, Benedikt - 2021

We explore how changes in capital-based macroprudential regulation in the euro area affect the exposure of national banking sectors to domestic government debt, thus strengthening or weakening the sovereign-bank nexus. To do so, we construct a measure of macroprudential policy based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628800

The financial accelerator in the euro area : new evidence using a mixture VAR model

Bennani, Hamza; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2020

We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012383710

Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2018

We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively asses the contribution of the TARGET2 system to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793977

International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area

Peersman, Gert - 2018

This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics using a structural VAR model that is identified with an external instrument (i.e. a series of global harvest shocks). The results reveal that exogenous food commodity price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931321

"Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? : bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects

Afonso, António; Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Gadea, … - 2017

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972

State-dependent transmission of monetary policy in the euro area

Burgard, Jan Pablo; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Nöckel, Matthias - 2018 - First Draft: December 21, 2016

In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999-2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the time-varying state weights are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011859492

Trust in government and fiscal adjustments

Bursian, Dirk; Weichenrieder, Alfons J.; Zimmer, Jochen - 2013

The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764994

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