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Carry funding and safe haven currencies : a threshold regression approach
Hossfeld, Oliver; MacDonald, Ronald - 2014
currencies, and the euro serves as a hedge currency. Results for the yen support its role as a carry funding vehicle, but not … fundamental determinants. We therefore address the question of whether a supposed safe haven currency only appreciates in times of … crises because carry trades are unwound, in which the corresponding currency has served as funding currency, or whether it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010462763
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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the role of expectations : evidence from the Ifo world economic survey
Henzel, Steffen (contributor);  … - 2006
We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003301367
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Biased survival expectations and behaviours : does domain specific information matter?
Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana Prieto, Cristina - 2021 - This version: January 2022
We study biased survival expectations across two domains and examine whether such biased expectations influence health and financial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal data, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669614
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Local information and firm expectations about aggregates
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285506
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Associative memory and belief formation
Enke, Benjamin; Schwerter, Frederik; Zimmermann, Florian - 2019
This paper experimentally studies the role of associative memory for belief formation. Realworld information signals are often embedded in memorable contexts. Thus, today’s news, and the contexts they are embedded in, may cue the selective retrieval of similar past news and hence contribute to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118551
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The effect of disaggregate information on the expectation formation of firms
Buchheim, Lukas; Link, Sebastian - 2017
This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761559
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Dusting off the perception of risk and returns in FOREX markets
Cumperayot, Phornchanok J. - 2003
In this paper, we construct alternative theoretical models for exchange rates by introducing additional risk factors, based on the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. The modified flexible-price monetary model is used to characterize the long-run equilibrium of exchange rates, while the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507667
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Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US Dollar
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736739
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Monetary policy, model uncertainty and exchange rate volatility
Markiewicz, Agnieszka - 2010
This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003937806
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Bubbles and crashes in a behavioural finance model
De Grauwe, Paul; Grimaldi, Marianna - 2004
We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401333