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economy using Bayesian methods. We find that the model captures the key dynamics of the period surprisingly well. Importantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009489289
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003364046
The paper argues that persistent current account surpluses and increasing foreign currency-denominated asset positions constitute long-term appreciation expectations on yuan and yen, which have made China and Japan vulnerable to U.S. interest rate cuts and appreciation expectation shocks. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475972
We use a behavioral macroeconomic model to analyze how structural reforms affect the economy in the short and in the … second one raises potential output in the economy. We find that structural reforms that increase the flexibility of wages and … rigid economy. Finally, we analyze how structural reforms change the tradeoffs between output and inflation variability. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663556
Since a series of crisis events after 2007, the discussion about the adjustment channels of current account imbalances has been revived. We discuss the effectiveness of exchange rates versus macroeconomic policies to rebalance current accounts for a set of 86 mainly emerging market economies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010431297
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003457702
The interplay between banks and the macroeconomy is of key importance for financial and economic stability. We analyze this link using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which extends a standard VAR for the U.S. macroeconomy. The model includes GDP growth, inflation, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697545
This paper describes the monetary policy response of countries during the inter-war period. How did central banks react to the Great Depression? How did countries balance the externals demands of the gold standard with domestic policy pressures? What was the optimal level of international policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003854474
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003463137
Given buoyant capital inflows and managed exchange rates the majority of emerging market central banks have continued to accumulate massive foreign reserves. If left unsterilized, the liquidity expansion can threaten domestic macroeconomic stability. To contain domestic inflation these central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003994520