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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908

Cointegration analysis with mixed-frequency data

Seong, Byeongchan (contributor); Ahn, Sung K. (contributor); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496561

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria (contributor); … - 2008

This paper proposes a very general time series framework to capture the long-run behaviour of financial series. The suggested model includes linear and non-linear time trends, and stationary and nonstationary processes based on integer and/or fractional degrees of differentiation. Moreover, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003720605

Proprietary income, entrepreneurial risk, and the predictability of US stock returns

Hoffmann, Mathias (contributor) - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003363972

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626