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Long memory in US real output per capita
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2009
This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 - 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850276
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The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval : a survey
Berlemann, Michael; Enkelmann, Sören - 2012
economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009511756
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Uncertainty across volatility regimes
Angelini, Giovanni; Bacchiocchi, Emanuele; Caggiano, … - 2017
We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778668
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Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration
Flückiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; … - 2019 - This version: July 2019
We show that the creation of the first integrated pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that interregional trade was strongly influenced by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033121
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Sovereign bonds since Waterloo
Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2019
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011973856
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How do financial crises redistribute risk?
Mitchener, Kris; Vossmeyer, Angela - 2023
We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century - the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014323137
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The rate of return on everything, 1870-2015
Jordà, Òscar; Knoll, Katharina; Kuvshinov, Dmitry; … - 2018
the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794864
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Turkey and the EU : politics and economics of accession
Flam, Harry - 2003
This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkish accession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatest number of council votes within twenty years, and receive the largest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkish immigrant population in Germany from 2 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506471
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Shedding light on the shadow economy : a global database and the interaction with the official one
Medina, Leandro; Schneider, Friedrich - 2019 - 2nd version
estimating the size of the shadow economy for 157 countries over 1991 to 2017. The results suggest that the OECD countries are by … far the lowest with values below 20% of off official GDP and the shadow economy is larger in Latin America and Sub ….9 %. What is really remarkable, that the average decline of the shadow economy from 1991 to 2017 is 6.8 percentage points. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012138830
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Transparency, specialization and FDI
Razin, Asaf; Tsadḳah, Efrayim - 2004
We develop a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the relative abundance of intangible capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402538