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Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016
the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
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Does the Euro-zone diverge? : a stress indicator for analyzing trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation
Flaig, Gebhard (contributor);  … - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496544
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
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Forecasting exports across Europe : what are the superior survey indicators?
Lehmann, Robert - 2019 - This version: September 6, 2019
the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104016
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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Cold progression and its effects on income distribution
Heer, Burkhard; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2003
We present new empirical evidence for the US economy that inflation reduces the inequality of the earnings distribution … higher inflation on income distribution is shown to be rather small. However, we find that a longer duration between two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507921
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Do IFO indicators help explain revisions in German industrial production? : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003
Jacobs, Jan; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2004
This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449259
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Metrics capturing the degree to which individual economies are globalized
Riezman, Raymond Glenn (contributor);  … - 2005
We discuss metrics of globalization for individual economies as distance measures between fully integrated and trade restricted equilibria in economies initially operating under less than full integration with the global economy. Such metrics can be used to construct country globalization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002757524
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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223