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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571041
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A social heuristics hypothesis for the stag hunt : fast- and slow-thinking hunters in the lab
Belloc, Marianna; Bilancini, Ennio; Boncinelli, Leonardo; … - 2017
interactions, players who make their choices fast and intuitively, relying on social heuristics, choose stag more often than other … players. Second, we run a lab experiment and use a time pressure treatment to induce fast and intuitive thinking. We find that … Heuristics Hypothesis (Rand et al., 2012) applied to stag hunt interactions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781462
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No-trade in the laboratory
Angrisani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio; Huck, Steffen; … - 2008
other participants. In treatments with no gains from trade, theory predicts no trading activity, whereas, in treatments with …-trade theorem ; experiment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003772144
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Macroeconomic modeling when agents are imperfectly informed
De Grauwe, Paul (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003712532
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Waiting to choose
Imas, Alex; Kuhn, Michael A.; Mironova, Vera - 2016
We study the role of heuristic versus deliberative processing in intertemporal choice. Using studies in the Democratic Republic of Congo and an online labor market, we show that waiting periods - designed to prompt deliberation by temporally separating news about choice sets from choices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557776
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Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno - 2020
Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
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Cooperating, fast and slow : testing the social heuristics hypothesis
Strømland, Eirik; Tjøtta, Sigve; Torsvik, Gaute - 2016
Heuristics Hypothesis (SHH) proposes that fast instinctive decision making promotes cooperation in social dilemmas. In this paper …, we conduct a novel time-pressure experiment to shed light on the cognitive underpinnings of cooperation. Although we find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458007
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Asymmetric connectedness on the US stock market : bad and good volatility spillovers
Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015
This paper suggests how to quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers that emerge due to bad and good volatility. Using data covering most liquid U.S. stocks in seven sectors, we provide ample evidence of the asymmetric connectedness of stocks at the disaggregate level. Moreover, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509638
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Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151
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Persistence in the Russian stock market volatility indices
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; … - 2018
This paper applies a fractional integration framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of two Russian stock market volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period 2010-2018. The empirical findings are consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903723