What is the role of large playersʺ like hedge funds and other highly leveraged institutions in speculative attacks? In recent theoretical work, large players may induce an attack by an early move, providing information to smaller agents. In contrast, many observers argue that large players are...

We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

The relationship between volume and volatility has received much attention in the the literature of financial markets. However, due to the lack of data, few results have been presented for the foreign exchange market. Further, most studies contain only aggregate series, and can not distinguish...

This paper investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals. First, we develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. This model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus nonlinearities in the...

In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a...

We analyze the worst currency carry loss episodes in recent decades, including causes, attribution by currency, timing, and the duration of carry drawdowns. To explore the determinants of the length of carry losses, a model of carry drawdown duration is estimated. We find evidence that drawdown...

We analyze total, asymmetric and frequency connectedness between oil and forex markets using high-frequency, intra-day data over the period 2007 - 2017. By employing variance decompositions and their spectral representation in combination with realized semivariances to account for asymmetric and...

Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle...