Showing 1 - 10 of 2,004
In this paper, we construct alternative theoretical models for exchange rates by introducing additional risk factors …, based on the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. The modified flexible-price monetary model is used to characterize … macroeconomic sources of FOREX risk may be a missing factor in the exchange rate study. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507667
Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
This paper re-examines the UIP relation by estimating first a benchmark linear Cointegrated VAR including the nominal exchange rate and the interest rate differential as well as central bank announcements, and then a Cointegrated Smooth Transition VAR (CVSTAR) model incorporating nonlinearities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508617
This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals ́expectations vary considerably as they generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009727121
macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the … estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset …-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012745240
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blowʺ narrative is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861767
This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard … may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables. As a result, exchange rate volatility is mainly … determined by the dynamics of this subset of fundamentals. As agents switch between models the nominal exchange rate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003937806
We examine the Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) response to the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) shocks from a panel VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012195928