In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...

To help German households and firms with exploding energy costs, the German government is about to implement a new transfer scheme called "gas price brake." A unique feature of this energy price relief measure is that both households and the industry receive a transfer that increases in one's...

Optimal climate policy is studied. Coal, the abundant resource, contributes more CO2 per unit of energy than the exhaustible resource, oil. We characterize the optimal sequencing oil and coal and departures from the Herfindahl rule. "Preference reversal" can take place. If coal is very dirty...

The Russian gas market is highly regulated. In this paper we examine possible impacts of regulatory changes on the demand side of this market. In particular, we consider the effects on Russian energy consumers of removing natural gas subsidies, and how changes in Russian gas consumption may...

This paper examines the value that can potentially be created by a vertically integrating energy system. Integration entails operational gains that must be traded off against the requisite cost of capacity investments. In the context of our model, the operational gains are subject to inherent...

When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences about cointegration relationships, price adjustments...

This paper investigates the economic value of trade when prices of transportation services are endogenous to cross-market price spreads. This is relevant for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG transportation capacity is limited in the short-run, and long lead-times are involved in...