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Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level
Merkl, Christian; Stüber, Heiko - 2021
We document substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of German establishments' real wage cyclicality over the business cycle. While wages of the median establishment are moderately procyclical, 36 percent of establishments have countercyclical wages. We estimate a negative connection between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012619265
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Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018
This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616
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Real wages and business cycle asymmetries : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003
Woitek, Ulrich - 2004
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261
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Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning
Molnár, Krisztina; Santoro, Sergio - 2010
We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974493
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Growth, expectations, and tariffs
Honkapohja, Seppo; Turunen-Red, Arja H.; Woodland, Alan D. - 2011
We study a many country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine country-specific short run transition paths. Countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose tariffs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124163
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Adaptive agents may be smarter than you think : unbiasedness in adaptive expectations
Palestrini, Antonio; Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro - 2021
Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599034
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Real wages and hours in the great recession : evidence from firms and their entry-level jobs
Schaefer, Daniel; Singleton, Carl - 2017
Using employer-employee panel data, we provide novel facts on how real wages and working hours within jobs responded to the UK's Great Recession. In contrast to previous studies, our data enables us to address the cyclical composition of jobs. We show that firms were able to respond to the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761531
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Nominal and real wages in the UK, 1750 - 2015 : mean reversion, persistence and structural breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2022
This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013417630
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Searching for Keynes : an essay on the political economy of fiscal policy, with application to Canada, 1870-2000 - revised version
Winer, Stanley L.; Ferris, John Stephen - 2003
Keynes' General Theory (1936) is arguably one of the most important books of the twentieth century. His ideas for … stabilizing the aggregate economy have profoundly influenced economic theory as well as popular opinion about what governments can … and should do with respect to the business cycle. On the other hand, whether Keynesian theory has substantially altered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509394
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Reasons for the demise of interest : savings glut and secular stagnation or central bank policy?
Mayer, Thomas; Schnabl, Gunther - 2019
, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124862