This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are...

This paper revisits the Fisher hypothesis by estimating fractional integration and cointegration models that are more general than the standard ones based on the classical I(0)/I(1) dichotomy. Two sets of results are obtained under the alternative assumptions of white noise and Bloomfield (1973)...

This paper investigates output convergence for the G7 countries using multivariate time series techniques. We consider both the null hypotheses of no convergence and convergence. It is shown that inferences on output convergence depend on which one of the two null hypotheses is considered....

This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is...

Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...

We analyze the worst currency carry loss episodes in recent decades, including causes, attribution by currency, timing, and the duration of carry drawdowns. To explore the determinants of the length of carry losses, a model of carry drawdown duration is estimated. We find evidence that drawdown...

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...