We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%. …

the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We … after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is. …

This paper documents the role of unemployment and earnings risk in reconciling evidence in payoff differentials between … the role of lower unemployment risk in self-employment. We decompose earnings risk dynamics by estimating a life … throughout their life-cycle. Our results challenge the conventional view that self-employment necessarily entails higher risk and …

We examine the impact of the last five decades of financial globalization on world GDP and income distribution, using a … pattern Unbalanced Financial Globalization. We then simulate a counterfactual trajectory of the world economy where the RKO … capital allocation, a 2.8% lower world GDP, a 12% rise in the cross-country dispersion of GDP per capita, lower wages in …

four barriers (geographic distance, cultural distance, foreign investment taxation, and political risk) accounts for a … benchmark calibration, we estimate that the capital misallocation induced by these barriers reduces World GDP by 7%, compared to …-country inequality: the standard deviation of log capital per employee is 80% higher than it would be in a world without barriers to …