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The focus is upon equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt and their interaction, in a world where both the return on investment and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. These theoretically based measures are applied empirically to answer the following questions:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002524134
The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781700
This paper examines mean and volatility spillovers between three major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219891
For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013201664
-skewness, and co-volatility contagion tests. Our analysis is applied to the oil-exchange rate and oil-stock market relationships of … and turbulent oil price volatility episodes with a non-hierarchical k-means clustering algorithm on volatility measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922053
A new procedure to trace the sources of contagion in the oil-finance nexus is proposed. We do this by consolidating veteran rules derived from the empirical oil literature to filter oil supply, global demand, and oil demand shocks into discrete typical and extreme conditions. We show how these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120201
that divergence in monetary policy regimes affects forex volatility spillovers but that adding oil to a forex portfolio … shocks dominate forex volatility connectedness, positive shocks prevail when oil and forex markets are assessed jointly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012035050
We study a segmented-markets setting in which self-fulfilling volatility can arise. The only requirements are (i) asset … valuation ratios stationary (e.g., cash flow growth rises when valuations rise). We prove that when self-fulfilling volatility … susceptible to self-fulfilling fluctuations. The tight theoretical connection between price volatility and arbitrage is detectable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012260973
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641673
This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831962