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Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2019
due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross ….75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956353
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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The econometrics of oil market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841
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Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete information : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks : comment
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2018
Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882307
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Oil rents shocks and inequality in Iran
Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Krieger, Tim - 2018 - This version: January 2018
and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil rent booms within 4 years of the shock. In addition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793996
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Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks
Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. - 2017 - Revised December 21, 2017
Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782040
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Yield curve and financial uncertainty : evidence based on US data
Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019
stronger than that of the long end (i.e., of long term ones). In other words, a financial uncertainty shock causes a temporary … recovery in real activity after a financial uncertainty shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082
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Corporate debt and stock returns : evidence from U.S. firms during the 2020 oil crash
Arezki, Rabah; Cho, Caleb; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Kate; … - 2022
This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205096
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How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? : new evidence from a time-varying threshold model
Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Saafi, Sami; Rault, … - 2024
Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529202
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Monetary policy through production networks : evidence from the stock market
Ozdagli, Ali; Weber, Michael - 2017 - This version: May 2017
Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on aggregate stock market returns in narrow event windows around press releases by the Federal Open Market Committee. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct (demand) effect and an indirect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657891