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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313

A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model

Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020

observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790

The G7 business cycle in a globalized world

Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016

, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802

Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2017

It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area : a global VAR analysis

Dées, Stéphane; Di Mauro, Filippo; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2005

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002746106

Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing

Enders, Zeno; Vespermann, David - 2021

We assess to which degree an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing as well as allocative efficiency and apply our results to the implicit transfers generated by a potential European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS). Specifically, we first develop a simple model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491596

Intra-and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run

Becker, Sascha O.; Hoffmann, Mathias - 2003

We investigate empirically how industrialized countries and U.S. states share consumption risk at horizons between one and thirty years. U.S. federal states share about 50 percent of their permanent idiosyncratic risk through cross-state capital income flows. While insurance against transitory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404294

Rising to the challenge : Bayesian estimation and forecasting techniques for macroeconomic agent-based models

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Grazzini, Jakob - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119860

The VARying effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe

Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Morales Zumaquero, Amalia; … - 2010

. Moreover, our results suggest that the way how countries react to world commodity price shocks is related to the underlying …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974654

Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571

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