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High-frequency analysis of foreign exchange interventions : what do we learn?
Menkhoff, Lukas (contributor) - 2008
The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790983
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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Macroeconomic policy making, exchange rate adjustment and current account imbalances in emerging markets
Duarte, Pablo; Schnabl, Gunther - 2014
Since a series of crisis events after 2007, the discussion about the adjustment channels of current account imbalances has been revived. We discuss the effectiveness of exchange rates versus macroeconomic policies to rebalance current accounts for a set of 86 mainly emerging market economies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010431297
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China and its Dollar exchange rate : a worldwide stabilizing influence?
McKinnon, Ronald I.; Schnabl, Gunther - 2011
We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009127709
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A tale of two surplus countries : China and Germany
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2019
We analyze current account imbalances through the lens of the two largest surplus countries; China and Germany. We observe two striking patterns visible since the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis. First, while China has been gradually reducing its current account surplus, Germany’s surplus has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012024585
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Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2017
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754229
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Measuring global real economic activity : do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958840