Showing 1 - 10 of 4,051
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285506
This note develops a flexible methodology for splicing economic time series that avoids the extreme assumptions implicit in the procedures most commonly used in the literature. It allows the user to split the required correction to the older of the series being linked between its levels and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003922946
well, including those in which voters vote informatively. -- efficient information aggregation ; simple plurality rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009127595
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003363539
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
Suppose that a group of agents having divergent expectations can share risks efficiently. We examine how this group should behave collectively to manage these risks. We show that the beliefs of the representative agent is in general a function of the group.s wealth level, or equivalently, that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507677
The paper presents a general theory of the aggregation of prices and quantities that unifies the field and relates … topics that in the past have been treated separately and unsatisfactorily, or not at all. The theory does without the common … the theory lead to Törnqvist indexes defined on the appropriate data set. A numerical example confirms that in the non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514055
The paper shows that a comparison of the appropriately-weighted sum of households marginal willingness to pay for a public good with the net effect of the increased supply of the public good on shadow, as distinct from actual, government revenue is a generally valid rule for public good...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399689
We propose and apply a new theory-consistent algorithm, which uses disaggregated inter-city trade data to identify a … this upward bias results from aggregation along the extensive industry margin, which is why the bias is much smaller and … only marginally significant if estimation is conducted in a theory-consistent way at the disaggregated industry level. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901753
this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which … on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically … associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458028