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This note develops a flexible methodology for splicing economic time series that avoids the extreme assumptions implicit in the procedures most commonly used in the literature. It allows the user to split the required correction to the older of the series being linked between its levels and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003922946
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is … Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived, and the limiting behavior of the aggregation error is investigated … which "observed" inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010169
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
desirable policies and aim at manipulating information aggregation by misrepresenting their private information. We show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444451
this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which … on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically … associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458028
The paper presents a general theory of the aggregation of prices and quantities that unifies the field and relates … topics that in the past have been treated separately and unsatisfactorily, or not at all. The theory does without the common … the theory lead to Törnqvist indexes defined on the appropriate data set. A numerical example confirms that in the non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514055
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003363539
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285506
well, including those in which voters vote informatively. -- efficient information aggregation ; simple plurality rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009127595
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486379