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Ambiguous business cycles, recessions and uncertainty : a quantitative analysis
Piccillo, Giulia; Poonpakdee, Poramapa - 2023
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the macro economy by replicating its micro effects on individual subjective beliefs. In our model, the representative household has smooth ambiguity preferences and is uncertain about which scenario the economy will be in the next period:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014364652
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Sector specific news shocks in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations
Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D. - 2013 - First version: March 2011, This version: May 2013
Using a two-sector estimated DSGE model with a financial channel we show the sector where TFP news arrives matters for … expansionary while those in the investment sector are broadly contractionary. Our results indicate a significant role of TFP news … shocks as a predictive force behind fluctuations. Consumption sector TFP news shocks generate both aggregate and sectoral co …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009753003
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Unemployment in the European Union : institutions, prices, and growth : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Employment and Social Protection, June 2004
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - 2004
This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450238
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The macroeconomic projections of the German government : a comparison to an independent forecasting institution
Lehmann, Robert; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2019
This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958832
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Intermittent price changes in production plants : empirical evidence using monthly data
Nilsen, Øivind Anti; Vange, Magne - 2018
The price-setting behaviour of manufacturing plants is examined using a large panel of monthly surveyed plant- and product-specific prices. The sample shows a high frequency of zero changes, relatively small price changes, and a strong seasonal price-change pattern. The intermittent feature of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872944
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News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real …, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data … contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
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Booms and busts : new Keynesian and behavioral explanations
De Grauwe, Paul - 2010
Capitalism is characterized by booms and busts. Periods of strong growth in output alternate with periods of declines in economic growth. Every macro-economic theory should attempt to explain these endemic business cycle movements. In this paper I present two paradigms that attempt to explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008806543
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Top-down versus bottom-up macroeconomics
De Grauwe, Paul - 2010
I distinguish two types of macroeconomic models. The first type are top-down models in which some or all agents are capable of understanding the whole picture and use this superior information to determine their optimal plans. The second type are bottom-up models in which all agents experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965858
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The cross-section of firms over the business cycle : new facts and a DSGE exploration
Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian - 2009
Using a German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The cross-sectional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003888063
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Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models
Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.; Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response matching estimator. The existing asymptotic theory for this estimator does not cover situations in which the number of impulse response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418016