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Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
We construct a meta-ranking of 315 economics journals based on 38 different individual rankings. Our ranking incorporates both bibliometric measures from three different databases (Web of Knowledge, RePEc and Google Scholar) and previous rankings in the literature. Furthermore, we account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418008
Numerous theoretical studies have shown that information aggregation through voting is fragile. We consider a model of … information aggregation with vote-contingent payoffs and generically characterize voting behavior in large committees. We use this … and unique information aggregation can be achieved with vote-contingent payoffs whose size varies depending on which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029166
A rapidly growing literature analyzes models in which firms maximize objectives other than profit and enjoy market power. Examples include the labor-managed firm, mixed oligopoly, and delegation models. These models typically retain the aggregative structure of the conventional Cournot model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011565597
Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783
Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011891769
this upward bias results from aggregation along the extensive industry margin, which is why the bias is much smaller and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901753
We compile data for 186 countries (1919 - 2016) and apply different aggregation methods to create new democracy indices …. We observe that most of the available aggregation techniques produce indices that are often too favorable for autocratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011966711
desirable policies and aim at manipulating information aggregation by misrepresenting their private information. We show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444451
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic …, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. -- forecasting ; stochastic aggregation ; autoregression ; moving average ; vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966437