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Local information and firm expectations about aggregates
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285506
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Estimating border effects : the impact of spatial aggregation
Coughlin, Cletus Charles; Novy, Dennis - 2016
this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which … associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the … mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458028
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Estimation and inference in large heterogenous panels with cross section dependence
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2003
This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with unobserved common factors possibly correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors and/or the observed common effects. The basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to filter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505911
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Forecasting Euro area real GDP : optimal pooling of information
Hülsewig, Oliver (contributor); Mayr, Johannes (contributor) - 2008
information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749431
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Debt sustainability and financial crises : evidence from the GIIPS
Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2011
We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets "too high" relative to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009307965
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Modelling the fiscal reaction functions of the GIPS based on state-varying thresholds
Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2013
We extend previous literature on fiscal policy sustainability by introducing non-linear fiscal reaction functions with endogenously estimated state-varying thresholds to capture the behaviour of fiscal policy authorities during "good" and "bad" times. These thresholds vary with the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792212
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Understanding firms' inflation expectations using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu - 2016
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011540769
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The estimation of multi-dimensional fixed effects panel data models
Balazsi, Laszlo; Mátyás, László; Wansbeek, Tom - 2015
The paper introduces the appropriate within estimators for the most frequently used three-dimensional fixed effects panel data models. It analyzes the behavior of these estimators in the cases of no self-flow data, unbalanced data, and dynamic autoregressive models. The main results are then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010492323
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Determinants of country beta risk in Poland
Wdowinski, Piotr - 2004
In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402721
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Hidden in plain sight : influential sets in linear models
Kuschnig, Nikolas; Zens, Gregor; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús - 2021
Assessing the robustness of the results of econometric analysis is a long standing subject of lively research. The majority of the literature focuses on sensitivity to model specification, while the quantification of sensitivity to sets of influential observations has received relatively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012494906