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A tale of two surplus countries : China and Germany
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2019
We analyze current account imbalances through the lens of the two largest surplus countries; China and Germany. We … observe two striking patterns visible since the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis. First, while China has been gradually reducing … these two countries, there is a remarkable reversal in the patterns of exchange rate misalignment: China’s currency has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012024585
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
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The globalisation of inflation : the growing importance of global value chains
Auer, Raphael A.; Borio, Claudio E. V.; Filardo, Andrew J. - 2017 - This version: 06.01.2017
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619539
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International inflation spillovers through input linkages
Auer, Raphael A.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Sauré, Philip - 2017
We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619669
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Sixty years of global inflation : a post-GFC update
Auer, Raphael A.; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Schoenle, Raphael - 2024
Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551069
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Fiscal divergence and current account imbalances in Europe
Schnabl, Gunther; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2013
Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System diverging current account positions in Europe have prevailed. While the Southern and Western European countries have tended to run current account deficits, the current accounts of the Central and Northern European countries, in particular Germany,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009702880
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Sovereigns versus banks : credit, crises, and consequences
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2013
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199757
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Macroeconomic policy making and current account imbalances in the euro area
Murai, Taiki; Schnabl, Gunther - 2021
The paper analyses the role of fiscal and monetary policy for the development of the current account imbalances in the euro area, including the most recent developments during the coronavirus crisis. Several financial transmission channels such as international bank lending, changes in TARGET2...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550195
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The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes : a wobbly link?
Scheubel, Beatrice; Stracca, Livio; Tille, Cédric - 2019
We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012129742
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International reserves before and after the global crisis : is there no end to hoarding?
Aizenman, Joshua; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Itō, Hiro - 2015
reflecting the frantic market conditions driven by financial instability. Nevertheless, the propensity to import and gross saving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490278