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Budgetary constrained governments : drivers of time varying fiscal sustainability in OECD countries

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2024

We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543858

Fiscal sustainability and low interest rates : a note

Werding, Martin - 2021

In this paper, I demonstrate that an indicator which is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“S2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. I illustrate this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421177

Fiscal transfers and fiscal sustainability

Potrafke, Niklas; Reischmann, Markus Josef - 2014

We examine whether US and German state governments pursue sustainable fiscal policies taking into account fiscal transfers. Using panel data techniques we investigate whether the debt-to-GDP ratio had a positive influence on the primary surplus (Bohn-model). We show that including/excluding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260027

Fiscal sustainability of the German Laender : time series evidence

Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2014

In this paper we analyze the sustainability of public finances in the states (Laender) of the Federal Republic of Germany using an unprecedentedly comprehensive fiscal dataset for the time period from 1950 to 2011 for West German Laender and 1991 to 2011 for East German Laender, respectively. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388609

Public finances solvency in the Euro Area : true or false?

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365375

On the fiscal sustainability of Swiss cantons since 1905

Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2024 - This version: 31st October 2024

With an outstandingly long data set of Swiss cantonal public finances, we study whether this Swiss subnational level runs sustainable fiscal policies. Going back to the year 1905, we test for stationarity of cantonal public debt, revenue and spending and for cointegration between cantonal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015098965

Drivers of fiscal sustainability : a time-varying analysis for Portugal

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2023

We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in Portugal during the period 1999Q4-2021Q4. We resort to expanding window and Schlicht (2003, 2021)'s time-varying approaches to construct the responses of government revenues to government expenditures and the responses of the primary government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391313

Climate change impacts on public finances around the world

Barrage, Lint - 2024

This article reviews a rapidly growing literature on how climatic risks and events affect public finances around the world. This literature includes empirical evaluations of how past climatic events have affected fiscal outcomes, empirical and model-based assessments of how climatic risks affect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015098614

Beyond the centre : tracing decentralization's influence on time-varying fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2024

This paper explores the nuanced relationship between fiscal decentralization and fiscal sustainability. Employing panel data analyses, it scrutinizes how decentralization influences fiscal discipline across different governmental levels. Results for 185 countries show that while tax...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543839

Pension systems (un)sustainability and fiscal constraints : a comparative analysis

Heer, Burkhard; Polito, Vito; Wickens, Michael R. - 2023

Using an overlapping generations model, two new indicators of public pension system sustainability are proposed: the … pension space, which measures the capacity to pay for pension expenditures out of labour taxation, and the pension space … exhaustion probability reflecting demographic uncertainties. These measures reveal that the pension spaces of advanced economies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014292762