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Looking into the black box of boosting : the case of Germany

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2015

This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839

How to measure the tax burden on labour at the macro-level?

Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Volkerink, Bjørn - 2003

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we survey the way in which the tax burden on labour has been proxied for … extent the conclusions of some studies change if some alternative indicator for the tax burden on labour is employed. We … indicator for the tax burden on labour is also shown to affect the conclusions of some well-known empirical models. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507980

Job search, unemployment protection and informal work in advanced economies

Long, Iain W.; Polito, Vito - 2017

This paper investigates the incentives that may induce workers to supplement income from unemployment benefits by engaging in temporary informal work. Using a dynamic model of job-search with moral hazard that incorporates a stylised schedule of benefit payments, we describe how informal sector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761509

The role of informality in moderating the impact of adverse macroeconomic shocks

Marjit, Sugata; Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy; Yang, Lei - 2023

This paper provides a simple demonstration of an empirical observation pointed out by the existing literature that the presence of informality in the production sector of an economy moderates the impact of economic shocks affecting it. We show that in the presence of informality, adverse demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320178

The bazaar effect, unbundling of comparative advantage, and migration

Kohler, Wilhelm (contributor) - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496505

Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test : a case study for the euro area industrial production

Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina … - 2010

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653414

The impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity

Segerstrom, Paul Stephen; Sugita, Yoichi - 2013 - First version: June 22, 2012, Current version: June 28, 2013

This paper calls into question the currently most influential model of international trade. An empirical finding by Trefler (2004, AER) and others that industrial productivity increases more strongly in liberalized industries than in non-liberalized industries has been widely accepted as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786088

Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test : a case study for the Euro area industrial production

Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina … - 2010 - This version: June 2010, preliminary

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008933818

Intra- and inter-industry productivity spillovers in OECD manufacturing : a spatial econometric perspective

Badinger, Harald (contributor); Egger, Peter (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003630466

Energy tax exemptions and industrial production

Gerster, Andreas; Lamp, Stefan - 2023

Environmental policies are often accompanied by exemptions for energy-intensive and trade-exposed industrial ﬁrms to avoid leakage from regulated to unregulated jurisdictions. This paper investigates the impact of a large electricity tax exemption on production levels, employment, and input...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013494333