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We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780495
Should the central bank prevent "excessive" asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene only afterwards? The debate over this issue goes back at least to the exchange between Bernanke-Gertler (BG) and Cecchetti but has not settled yet. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009377794
The paper models the links between financial fragility, asset markets and monetary policy. It is shown that central bank's concern about the cost of financial disruption generates an asymmetric response, thus contributing to the creation of an asset price bubble. In an economy with a highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398119
which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these behavioural bubbles with rational bubbles. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401333
which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We also analyse the empirical relevance of the model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509496
An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation is used to show how public deposit insurance and weak prudential regulation can lead to banking crises and permanent declines in economic growth. The impact of regulatory forbearance on investment, saving and asset price dynamics under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402648
which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these ʺbehaviouralʺ bubbles with ʺrationalʺ bubbles. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002749785
This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking … policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011952012
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003820020