Showing 1 - 10 of 1,584
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market … risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany … characterized as a random walk process, whilst its volatility is less persistent and exhibits stationary long-memory behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012199998
premium is very sensitive with regard to the utility parameters. -- equity premium ; production CAPM ; real-business cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011127
We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752999
We document the empirical fact that asset prices in the consumption-goods and investment-goods sector behave almost identically in the US economy. In order to derive the cyclical behavior of the equity returns in these two sectors, we consider a standard two-sector real-business cycle model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786095
-strong factors, and latent weak factors. It focusses on the estimation of ∅k = λk − μk which plays a pivotal role, not only in the … estimation of risk premia but also in tests of market efficiency, where λk and μk are respectively the risk premium and the mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013549135
We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014388605
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983199
probability of macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro (2006), and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth à la …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009689360
has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566