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Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin; Rangazas, Peter C. - 2021

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for … saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We … countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508583

Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762

Going to extremes : politics after financial crisis, 1870 - 2014

Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015

Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349087

Agricultural price shocks and business cycles a global warning for advanced economies

De Winne, Jasmien; Peersman, Gert - 2018

For a panel of 75 countries, we find that increases in global agricultural commodity prices that are caused by unfavorable harvest shocks in other regions of the world significantly curtail domestic economic activity. The effects are much larger than for average global agricultural price shifts....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846251

Financial integration, globalization, and real activity

De Nicolò, Gianni; Juvenal, Luciana - 2012

Using data for a large number of advanced and emerging market economies during 1982-2009, this paper examines the distinct impact of financial integration and globalization on several dimensions of real activity. We find that: (a) financial integration has progressed significantly worldwide,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009490605

Securitization of mortgage debt, asset prices and international risk sharing

Hoffmann, Mathias; Nitschka, Thomas - 2009

We explore the impact of mortgage securitization on the international diversification of macroeconomic risk. By making mortgage-related risks internationally tradeable, securitization contributes considerably to better international consumption risk sharing: we find that countries with the most...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003806732

Sovereigns versus banks : credit, crises, and consequences

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2013

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199757

The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763

Betting the house

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010468583

Do economic crises lead tourists to closer destinations? : an analysis of Italy's regional data

Cafiso, Gianluca; Cellini, Roberto; Cuccia, Tiziana - 2015

This article investigates whether the distance between origin and destination has played an increased role in shaping Italy’s domestic tourism flows during the recent years of economic recession. Indeed, the occurrence of closer tourism destinations, as a consequence of the economic crisis,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010492324

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