Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016 - First version: January 21, 2015. This version: September 13, 2015
occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced that it would maintain current production levels despite the steady increase … in non-OPEC oil production. Both conjectures are perfectly reasonable ex ante, yet we provide quantitative evidence that … expected oil production that occurred prior to July 2014. The remaining oil price decline is accounted for by a shock to oil …