complexity of memory measured using Shannon's mutual information, as in models of rational inattention; but our theory differs … nature of forecast biases depends on these parameters. The model provides a simple explanation for a number of features of …

avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …

the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We … announcements that include an interest rate forecast lead to very similar market reactions across the yield curve as announcements …

-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of parameter heterogeneity. We investigate conditions under which panel … accuracy depend on the degree of parameter heterogeneity, whether heterogeneity is correlated with the regressors, the goodness … forecasts based on pooled and individual estimates and develop a novel forecast poolability test that can be used as a …

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

their heterogeneity. We exploit survey data on output and inflation expectations by individual professional forecasters. We …, given the state of the economy and the updated beliefs. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in the gain coefficients …