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Forecasting tail risks : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money and International Finance, February 2015
De Nicolò, Gianni; Lucchetta, Marcella - 2015
the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498601
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Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno - 2020
Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
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The Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG : modelling and forecasting
Wdowinski, Piotr (contributor);  … - 2005
In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003202866
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Proprietary income, entrepreneurial risk, and the predictability of US stock returns
Hoffmann, Mathias (contributor) - 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003363972
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Macro-financial linkages in the high-frequency domain : the effects of uncertainty on realized volatility
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Karanasos, Menelaos; Yfanti, … - 2019
This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to financial stability. In particular, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012158736
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Why does idiosyncratic risk increase with market risk?
Bartram, Söhnke M.; Brown, Gregory W.; Stulz, René M. - 2017
From 1963 through 2015, idiosyncratic risk (IR) is high when market risk (MR) is high. We show that the positive … has roots in fundamentals. Higher market risk predicts greater idiosyncratic earnings volatility as well as dispersion and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674278
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Measuring the economic risk of epidemics
Noy, Ilan; Nguyen Doan; Ferrarini, Benno; Park, Donghyun - 2019
We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the …’s resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high …-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156716
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Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
to the fit. Using data for the United States, the euro area and Germany, we assess the performance of boosting when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
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What do we know about recent exchange rate models? : in-sample fit and out-of-sample performance evaluated
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie David; Pascual, Antonio … - 2003
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970 s vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507659
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An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns
Brännäs, Kurt; Nordman, Niklas - 2001
The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115