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The macroeconomic policy challenges of balance sheet recession : lessons from Japan for the European crisis
Schnabl, Gunther - 2013
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745
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On Bayesian filtering for markov regime switching models
Hashimzade, Nigar; Kirsanov, Oleg; Kirsanova, Tatiana; … - 2024
This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK DSGE) models with multiple regimes. We outline the theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014470409
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On optimal currency areas and common cycles : are the acceding countries ready to join the euro?
Grimm, Louisa; Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2021
The former EU president Jean-Claude Junker has proposed that all countries of the European Union should also adopt the euro as their currency and recent research has shown that countries currently pursuing this goal indeed fulfill the classical Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criterion of positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012506932
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Labor mobility and fiscal policy in a currency union
Baglioni, Angelo; Boitani, Andrea; Bordignon, Massimo - 2015
Labor mobility is commonly taken as a property of an optimal currency area. But how does that property affect the outcome of fiscal policies? In our model, we show that perfect (costless) labour mobility is not necessarily welfare improving, since it prevents the national fiscal authorities from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471847
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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Trust in government and fiscal adjustments
Bursian, Dirk; Weichenrieder, Alfons J.; Zimmer, Jochen - 2013
credibility play an important role not only in monetary policy, but also in fiscal policy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764994
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Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in the EMU : a dynamic game approach
Aarle, Bas van; Engwerda, Jacob Christiaan; Plasmans, … - 2001
The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is a crucial issue in a highly integrated economic area as the European Union. We argue that EMU, which introduced a common monetary policy and restrictions on fiscal policy at the national level, increases the need for macroeconomic policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398097
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Has the Eurozone become bess fragile? : some empirical tests
De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei - 2015
In this paper we provide empirical evidence documenting the nature of the Eurozone's fragility. We find that during … periods of turmoil, financial markets have tended to impose strong programs of austerity on member countries of the Eurozone … present in the Eurozone. Our policy conclusion is that the institutional changes that have been introduced in the Eurozone …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472677
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Monetary and fiscal policy design under EMU : a dynamic game approach
Aarle, Bas van; Engwerda, Jacob Christiaan; Plasmans, … - 2000
This paper analyzes the problem of designing macroeconomic stabilization policies within the European Monetary Union (EMU) as a dynamic game between a centralized monetary authority, the European Central Bank (ECB), and national fiscal policy makers. Non-cooperative feedback Nash equilibrium and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781533