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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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The forecasting power of the ifo business survey
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
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What do we know about recent exchange rate models? : in-sample fit and out-of-sample performance evaluated
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie David; Pascual, Antonio … - 2003
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970 s vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507659
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
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Findings of the signal approach for financial monitoring in Kazakhstan
Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang; Shaikh, Shynar - 2009
This study concentrates on the signal approach for Kazakhstan. It focuses on the properties of individual indicators prior to observed currency crises. The indicators are used to build composite indicators. An advanced approach uses principal components analysis for the construction of composite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003883094
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Banking crises and crisis dating : theory and evidence
Boyd, John H.; De Nicolò, Gianni; Loukoianova, Elena - 2010
We formulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry that we use to identify and construct theory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). These measures differ from "banking crisis" (BC) indicators employed in many empirical studies, which are constructed using primarily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003994497
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Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test : a case study for the euro area industrial production
Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina … - 2010
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653414
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Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test : a case study for the Euro area industrial production
Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina … - 2010 - This version: June 2010, preliminary
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008933818
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Should transportation output be included as part of the coincident indicators system?
Lahiri, Kajal; Yao, Wenxiong - 2011
With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130176