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What drives German trend output growth? : a sectoral view
Lehmann, Robert; Zarges, Lara - 2024 - This version: April 23, 2024
of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity trend growth variation on the persistent decline in long-run output …-term decline. Zooming into the reunification period, we find a pronounced decline of total factor productivity growth in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528208
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Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises in output
Ridder, Maarten de - 2016
models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a …-level exposure to the 2008-9 financial crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and has … 12% higher today if productivity-enhancing investments had grown at pre-crisis rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573282
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Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends
Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Smith, Ron; Grasl, Tobias - 2016
The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a Panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identification of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011457979
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Robust implementation of a parsimonious dynamic factor model to nowcast GDP
Duarte, Pablo; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2014
Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229863
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The impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity
Segerstrom, Paul Stephen; Sugita, Yoichi - 2013 - First version: June 22, 2012, Current version: June 28, 2013
Trefler (2004, AER) and others that industrial productivity increases more strongly in liberalized industries than in non … productivity increases more strongly in non-liberalized industries than in liberalized industries. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786088
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Intra- and inter-industry productivity spillovers in OECD manufacturing : a spatial econometric perspective
Badinger, Harald (contributor); Egger, Peter (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003630466
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The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes : a wobbly link?
Scheubel, Beatrice; Stracca, Livio; Tille, Cédric - 2019
We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012129742
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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Business cycle narratives
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders - 2019 - This version 28 December 2018
relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe. We do so by first constructing quantitative measures of narratives …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962290
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394