the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors. …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …