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The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?

Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356

Pay what you want as a marketing strategy in monopolistic and competitive markets

Schmidt, Klaus; Spann, Martin; Zeithammer, Robert - 2014

Pay What You Want (PWYW) can be an attractive marketing strategy to price discriminate between fair-minded and selfish customers, to fully penetrate a market without giving away the product for free, and to undercut competitors that use posted prices. We report on laboratory experiments that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010431266

Demand estimation using managerial responses to automated price recommendations

García, Daniel; Tolvanen, Juha; Wagner, Alexander K. - 2021

We provide a new framework to identify demand elasticities in markets where managers rely on algorithmic recommendations for price setting, and apply it to a dataset containing bookings for a sample of mid-sized hotels in Europe. Using non-binding algorithmic price recommendations and observed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012534709

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629

The right to benefit : using videos to encourage citizen involvement in resource revenue management

Faesch Brunnschweiler, Christiane; Kurniawan, Nanang Indra - 2024

The governance of natural resource wealth is a key factor in promoting strong institutions and economic development in resource-rich countries. In this paper, we explore how individuals' engagement in local natural resource revenue (NRR) management can be enhanced and encouraged. We focus on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014452391

"You need to have this information!": using videos to increase demand for accountability on public revenue management

Brunnschweiler, Christa N.; Edjekumhene, Ishmael; … - 2023

How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We carry out a video survey experiment among 2300 Ghanaian respondents to study the impact of information provision and encouragement messages by a politician and civil society leader on attitudes and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014443982

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Tariffs, trade and productivity : a quantitative evaluation of heterogeneous firm models

Breinlich, Holger; Cuñat, Alejandro - 2013

We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009773860

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