growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …

forecasts based on pooled and individual estimates and develop a novel forecast poolability test that can be used as a … stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage …

) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment … significantly from normality. Even though the Shannon entropy is more inclusive of different facets of a forecast density, we find … forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that …

, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …