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The availability of copious amounts of data produced by the increasing datification of our society is nowadays deemed an opportunity to produce timely and convenient statistical information. This paper shows the building of economic sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453734
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232863
gasoline price forecasts are feasible in real time at horizons up to two years, as are substantial increases in directional … successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the EIA gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
the accuracy of their forecasts. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in … to establish the social value of improving hurricane forecasts. On the margin, the value of hurricane information is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013426083
In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using … individual density forecast performance. -- density forecasts ; forecast evaluation ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009387222
useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515377
Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229863
BVARs produce accurate point forecasts but show a poor performance when the entire density is considered; (b) BVAR averaging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225