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. Even if monetary policy is found to react only mildly to inflation pre-Volcker, the substantial degrees of bounded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029136
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with new and old behavioral elements. Agents in the model exhibit cognitive discounting, or myopia: they discount variables far into the future at higher rates than typically implied in the benchmark model. We investigate the model under different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509319
over time. German trend inflation has strongly decreased and settled at a historically low level. GDP growth volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607593
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200338
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011352
model of inflation dynamics to evaluate monetary policies that rely on going long. It concludes that these policies for the … most part fail to keep inflation under control. A complementary methodological contribution is to re-state the classic … integrate the endogenous determination of inflation and the term structure of interest rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011825249
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper …, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the … inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619539
estate, as well as the costs of public goods to develop alternative inflation measures in Germany since the introduction of … the euro. Real economic growth as well as median wage developments are reexamined in light of the alternative inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291889
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566444
data determine two inflation regimes and find that they are characterized by high and low inflation volatility. We then … exhibit a more substantial and more persistent effect on downstream prices during periods of elevated inflation volatility … effective in State 2. Exogenously differentiating regimes by the level of inflation or the shock size does not reveal state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444690