which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions …, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this … with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even …

, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era. …

expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to reliably detect … relatively mild recessions when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to clearly … distinguish normal and severe recessions, so that the model identifies reliably all business cycle turning points in our sample …