Showing 1 - 10 of 471
We study investors' perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study and document that they … have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms' nominal … even decline, with increases in nominal yields offset by larger increases in inflation expectations. Consistent with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014632362
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566444
Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on aggregate stock market returns in narrow event windows around press releases by the Federal Open Market Committee. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct (demand) effect and an indirect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657891
We present new empirical evidence for the US economy that inflation reduces the inequality of the earnings distribution … higher inflation on income distribution is shown to be rather small. However, we find that a longer duration between two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507921
The effect of a permanent change of inflation on the distribution of wealth is analyzed in a general equilibrium OLG … of inflation results in a lower stock market participation rate; in addition, the distribution of wealth becomes more … anticipated inflation are considerably lower than in Imrohoroglu (1992). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514109
. Moreover, in response to aggregate shocks, aggregate price rigidity moves substantially, the response of inflation is dampened …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597241
Households participating in financial markets pay attention to inflation news when making their investment decisions …, even in an environment of mostly low and stable inflation. ETFs and open-ended mutual funds holding Treasury Inflation …-based inflation expectations measures increase. Changes in household survey expectations or in measures of inflation uncertainty do …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463289
This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205096
inflation and output can easily be explained in the context that agents do not have rational expectation. This important feature … correlated exogenous shocks to account for the high serial correlation in inflation and output while the behavioral model … strong force in producing the serial correlation in inflation and output. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888606
A consensus has recently emerged that a number of variables in addition to the level, slope, and curvature of the term structure can help predict interest rates and excess bond returns. We demonstrate that the statistical tests that have been used to support this conclusion are subject to very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346306