Showing 1 - 10 of 841
We consider the problem of repeatedly choosing policies to maximize social welfare. Welfare is a weighted sum of private utility and public revenue. Earlier outcomes inform later policies. Utility is not observed, but indirectly inferred. Response functions are learned through experimentation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014637430
This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009518240
We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262773
In this paper we estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil … indicate that world GDP is the main driver of long-run oil prices, however, supply (depletion) factors have become more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212353
In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model … endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural gas temporarily decouple due to gas specific pricing. We show that gas … the time of the year. Most of the reversion back to oil occurs in spring and summer when demand for gas to heating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212645
When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing … address these issues. Our regime switching model uses price data to infer whether pricing is oil-driven (integrated) or gas …-specific (decoupled). We find that UK natural gas (ICE) and oil (Brent) are cointegrated for the majority of the sample considered (1997 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486860
assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515402
becoming terrorists when representing regions rich in oil. This effect is enhanced for groups already enjoying regional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286479
Canadian province of Alberta has on the price producers pay for the right to extract oil. We exploit a regression discontinuity … average for oil leases that are regulated and that the total net present value cost of the regulation exceeds $1.15 billion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011482890
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958840