has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …

usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …