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Yield curve and financial uncertainty : evidence based on US data
Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019
How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082
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The European Central Bank's QE : a new hope
Wieladek, Tomasz; Garcia Pascual, Antonio - 2016
We examine the impact of the ECB's QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE anouncement shocks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488021
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The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty : evidence from the US and the Euro area
Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2009
surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian … policy ; model uncertainty ; Bayesian model averaging ; unemployment gap ; Taylor rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003813633
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Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018
Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment … of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic … of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894
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Macroeconomic shocks and racial labour market differences in the U.S.
De, Kuhelika; Compton, Ryan A.; Giedeman, Daniel C.; … - 2019
in their unemployment rate and not a decline in labour force participation rate. Policymakers should take account of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157899
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Macroeconomic sources of risk in the term structure
Balfoussia, Chiona (contributor);  … - 2004
In this paper we develop a new way of modelling time variation in term premia. This is based on the stochastic discount factor model of asset pricing with observable macroeconomic factors. The joint distribution of excess holding period US bond returns of different maturity and the fundamental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521058
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Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States : a nonlinear approach
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018
confirms that the contribution of EPU shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger … increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864417
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Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking, securitization, and their role for US business cycle fluctuations
Peersman, Gert; Wagner, Wolf - 2014
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257361
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Systematic monetary policy and the macroeconomic effects of shifts in loan-to-value ratios
Bachmann, Ruediger; Rüth, Sebastian - 2017
What are the macroeconomic consequences of changing aggregate lending standards in residential mortgage markets, as measured by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios? In a structural VAR, GDP and business investment increase following an expansionary LTV shock. Residential investment, by contrast, falls, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646925
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The financial accelerator in the euro area : new evidence using a mixture VAR model
Bennani, Hamza; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2020
We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012383710