Showing 1 - 10 of 152
This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011497748
This paper investigates the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011638226
Aggregate business investment is a major driver of long-term economic growth. It has been weak in many advanced economies over the last decade, partly due to cyclical demand-side effects. Nevertheless, a number of structural factors and policies interact with and have an effect on business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012543533
Given the unobserved nature of expectations, this paper employs latent variable analysis to examine three financial instability models and assess their out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. We compare a benchmark linear random walk model, which implies exogenous instability phenomena, with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014521225
This paper considers the estimation problem of structural models for which empirical restrictions are characterized by a fixed point constraint, such as structural dynamic discrete choice models or models of dynamic games. We analyze the conditions under which the nested pseudo-likelihood (NPL)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003805996
Rainfall is a truly exogeneous variable and hence popular as an instrument for many outcomes. But by its very nature, rainfall in nearby areas tends to be correlated. I show theoretically that if there are also spatial trends in outcomes of interest, this may create spurious correlation. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528337
We assess the public spending efficiency of 20 Latin American countries over the period of 2000-2019, computing Data Envelopment Analysis efficiency scores. For the Public Sector Performance composite indicator, we use the annual data of socio-economic indicators, and for the input measure we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453984
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176894