particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …

-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set …-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1-2023q1. This application …

We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms …. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the …