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Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118599
repression in domestic interest rates→to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249643
The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781700
Currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign currency denominated assets such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are under a persistent appreciation pressure, what restricts the degree of freedom in the choice of exchange rate regime. Official announcements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392509
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013473920
We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011568741
In this paper, we investigate how economic, political and institutional factors affect the choice of exchange rate regimes, using data on eight MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the 1984-2016 period. Specifically, we run random-effects ordered probit regressions of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177144
This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European … exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For … the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402440
considerably stronger relative to the impact on GDP since the mid-1980s, while the effects on inflation have become weaker …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754207
We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781534