Natural gas is likely to become increasingly important in the future. Understanding the stochastic underpinnings of natural gas prices will be critical, both to policy analysts and to market participants. To this end, we investigate the potential presence of jumps in natural gas spot prices in...

The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....

On August 11 2015, China revamped its procedure of setting the official central parity of the renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation shows that the intertemporal dynamics of China's central parity are not the same before and after this policy change. They are more...

We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance...

This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical...

In this study, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several modern Value-at- Risk (VaR) estimators derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and currency market data, we analyse the accuracy of the...

This paper explores the frequency of price overreactions in the US stock market by focusing on the Dow Jones Industrial Index over the period 1990-2017. It uses two different methods (static and dynamic) to detect overreactions and then carries out various statistical tests (both parametric and...

This paper examines price overreactions in the case of the following cryptocurrencies: BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple and Dash. A number of parametric (t-test, ANOVA, regression analysis with dummy variables) and non-parametric (Mann–Whitney U test) tests confirm the presence of price patterns...

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...

This paper investigates the impact of abnormal returns on stock prices by using daily and hourly data for some developed (US, UK, Japan) and emerging (China, India) markets over the period 01.01.2010-01.01.2020. Average analysis, t-tests, CAR and trading simulation methods are used to test the...